Հայաստանը պատրա՞ստ է դիմակայելու մարտահրավերներին

In July 2008 the Russian president Medvedev and Azeri president Ilham Aliyev signed a declaration on strategic cooperation in Baku. Several days following the mentioned declaration Arbak Khachatryan, former assistant of the authorized representative of the Russian ombudsman, who is an independent human rights defender now, warned in his interview with the 168 Hours that there might be developments in the future endangering Armenia.

– Medvedev’s step of signing the declaration in Baku was a meeting of worldwide significance. During the meeting of Medvedev and Aliyev one thing happened, which could change the world economy. As for the world economy, it is collapsing since there is crisis of oil and the prices are higher. This declaration had been prepared in advance and it could not be done during two or three days; they had worked on it during a long time for sure. Do you remember that four years ago Nazarbayev talked about the possibility of building a pipeline under the Caspian Sea?

And now Russia did it. In 2003 I wrote a letter to president Putin and wrote the following: “You will buy gas, and Armenia will not have anything to give you in several years, and as a result you will give out Armenia”. I was asking Putin to escape from a situation when they would have to give out Armenia and accept Azerbaijan, as they did in 1915. At that time they were suppressing through other means, and now they are doing it through economic methods. Russia has sacrificed its ally to solve bigger problems.

Russia did it for the sake of its interests, thus when making decisions we had to count our interests first. For this purpose we had to have smart politicians, who would be able to foresee long forward. The human rights defender believes as a result of our mistakes we have become a non-competent country in the region in conditions of peace. In answer to the question what other important provisions he could find in the declaration signed between Aliyev and Medvedev other than the published ones he said the following:

– Hence Russia will buy Azerbaijan’s gas and will supply the gas to Europe. If before 2007 Azerbaijan used to be a buyer of Gazprom, now it has become a supplier. By the way, Baku demands not only money from Moscow but also develops preconditions concerning the settlement of Karabakh conflict. Let’s not forget that Russia is an intermediate of the Karabakh conflict. The resolution writes about Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity as well. There have been conversations about it so far; however the problem is that now it is written on paper.

Thus Armenia is undermined now and if this mine explodes we will feel the results very fast. The impact is the same as in 1915 but now this will be in the form of crisis and blockade; at that time the weapons were different and now they are doing the same thing with other weapons. Do you imagine what will happen if this pipeline is built in several years and it starts supplying the biggest countries with gas? What can we do against this pipeline? It is clear what will happen to us if this pipeline is one of the major ones and Russia is one of the main stakeholders.

Armenia is endangered. The PACE resolutions shows what the world community thinks about us. The mistakes in the foreign and inner policy, as well as the economic situation have brought us to a point, when no one cares about us. Can we do anything against a pipeline which will cost millions in several years? If you can’t do anything then no one cares about you. Furthermore, I was informed from my source of information from the Russian president’s office that during the meeting between Medvedev and Aliyev there was also an agreement on taking the Armenian forces out of the seven liberated regions.

They told me about this verbally and as I have not seen any documents I can’t say whether this information is true.

In several months after the interview, specifically in June 2009, Medvedev and Aliyev came up with a joint statement concerning the Caspian Sea, an agreement was signed between Gazprom and the state oil company of Azerbaijan on the main conditions and policies of selling gas. The joint statement read that the approaches of the Caspian countries concerning the real status of the Caspian Sea had become closer. They also signed an agreement on defining the state borders and separating the line of Samur river and splitting the resources of this river. We have had a phone conversation with Mr. Khachatryan concerning the recent protocol signed between Armenia and Turkey. During our phone conversation he said the following:

– In this protocol the dangerous provision is the provision on re-affirming the bilateral and multilateral responsibilities of the principles of equity, sovereignty, not to interfere with the internal affairs of other countries, territorial integrity and grimness of borders. The other ones are standard texts which are used in relations between countries. Thus, a document may be signed which can be used against us for ages. With this step president Serzh Sargsyan is making an attempt to change the history.

I believe he is facing difficult problems now, maybe he did not have a choice or he has thought about something else. I can’t judge the situation based on rumors only. The problem is that now it is a very dangerous and responsible period for the Armenian statehood, as well as in consideration of the regional, world and economic global challenges. – There are rumors that Armenia is doing it to go far from Russia.

– There is a mentality in Armenia, according to which Armenians don’t imagine themselves without Russia. This situation connected with opening the borders is separating Armenia from Russia to some extent, but it is not an ordinary situation. It is a fact that you should be in good relations with the neighbor countries in order to live well. Armenia is in bad relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and as soon as the relations are getting better with Georgia it impacts the relations with Russia… What will happen to those millions of Armenians working in Russia if the relations with Russia become worse?

The prospect of opening the border with Turkey will result in economic growth and some development in the relations, and the Armenian people will live better and breathe easy. It is a pity that the relations between Armenia and Russia have always depended from the direct relations between the presidents of Armenia and Russia. These relations have been depending from the personal interests of the two presidents but not strategic issues or state interests. Now Armenia does not have any political or strategic leverage in the region, and the personal relations of the presidents can’t save the state interests.

Now the most dangerous times are starting for Armenia. No one wants to analyze the situation and everyone is respecting his own interest in Armenia; the Dashnaks have their interests and they don’t want to lose their business as a result of opening the borders because they have thousands of offices and headquarters overseas and they get a lot of money for the issue of the Genocide. The opposition is making small conflicts inside its own system or targets funny issues, Levon Ter-Petrosyan has his own interests, and when he needs he can talk and when he does not need it he keeps silence, the authorities have their narrow private business interests, and the businessmen standing close to the authorities have their own interests as well … The state interests are secondary in this country.

It’s a long time that there are no diplomatic skills in Armenia; nothing has been done in the foreign affairs for a long time and our diplomats have only met and escorted officials in other countries. It was their job. In a word, the Armenian foreign policy has always been weak. Thus, a question originates whether in such conditions Armenia is ready to use this diplomatic, political and economic potential to make sure that after the signing of the protocol the Turks will not enter Armenia as the Iranians, who are entering Armenia slowly, buying apartments, having children here and staying here, or can they make sure the Curds will not penetrate?

We should be ready for this in advance. Do you understand that as a result they may occupy lands through third countries such as England, America and other countries? Lands are not captured through wars only; there are civilized manners of doing it too. I don’t know whether Armenia is ready to face the future challenges. The most dangerous point is that there can be collapse here: Russia and Armenia have an agreement on allocating the Russian military forces in Armenia. What will happen if Russia is suggested by a third country to take out the military forces as they did with Georgia?

The results may be dangerous. It may be very dangerous for the Armenians who are working and staying in Russia. They will press on them. This is the danger I forecast and told your newspaper about. There are many means to guide Armenia out of this situation and save it. When your home is in danger you are ready to do anything. All countries have their interests; they have interests with gas or oil in the region. Russia believes it may do something till the termination of the agreement on allocating its forces and will not lose Armenia.

Major countries need the region for one thing only; to exploit and maintain gas and oil pipelines. And if Armenia needs to prevent such processes through a war or becomes an obstacle what can it do with its 3 million population? We should not forget about the world economic global developments. The head of the American state is trying to bring back the money from offshore zones, even they are trying to get the money that is kept in Switzerland. Small countries are surviving on the account of such money.

I have told your newspaper in the past that in such case many of the small countries will not exist anymore. New units will be established, some countries will stop existing and others will merge with bigger countries. There will be new wars. But major countries will not be able to resist the consequences if the small countries stop existing because even if Obama’s bank has 100 or 200 trillion, the economic system will not work anyway. New economic and banking systems should be established. Small countries such as Armenia, which don’t have financial and economic basement, should be very careful in their policies.

The current political situation in Armenia is not a result of Kocharyan’s or Sargsyan’s policy only, but Ter-Petrosyan’s policy (with Vazgen Sargsyan) as well, who did not allow any projects offered by any muslim country take place in Armenia, thus no pipelines were built through Armenia which could make us interesting to the world. I mean we implemented a policy as a result of which the other countries bypassed us. As a result we appeared in economic and political blockade.